Beirut, Lebanon — A grim milestone looms over the Levant this Tuesday: 100 days. One hundred days since the latest, brutal intensification of Israel’s war on Lebanon, marking its second major assault in less than two years and exacting a devastating toll on human lives, infrastructure, and the very fabric of society.
Over the past three months, Israeli forces have systematically obliterated dozens of villages throughout southern Lebanon. While diplomatic avenues have, for the first time in decades, seen Israel and Lebanon engage in direct talks, every concerted effort to implement a lasting ceasefire has, tragically, collapsed.
As this latest military campaign enters its second century, frantic attempts to halt the fierce fighting persist on multiple fronts. Beyond the direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv, Iran has publicly committed to linking the Lebanese conflict to any broader ceasefire deal it might strike with the United States and Israel. Indeed, the region was rocked just last Sunday when Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel, following an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs—a move Tehran considers a critical red line.
Meanwhile, in the south, skirmishes rage on between Israeli troops and Hezbollah, the potent pro-Iran political and paramilitary organization fiercely opposed to the Lebanese government’s direct engagement with Israel. Hezbollah has introduced a new battlefield dynamic, deploying advanced fibre-optic drones, complicating Israeli defensive measures.
Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and a leading expert on Hezbollah, observes, “They’ve gone back to their guerrilla roots. The intention now, much like in the 1990s, is to wear the Israelis down. They must continually overcome whatever defensive and offensive measures the Israelis bring to bear in the south to keep killing and wounding Israeli soldiers.”
The Escalating War on Lebanon: A Century of Conflict
The intensity of Israel’s attacks across southern Lebanon has shown no sign of abatement. Even on the 100th day, the relentless pattern of forced displacement continued, with a chilling threat issued against the southern coastal city of Tyre, including its previously untouched portside Christian quarter. A devastating air raid on a residential area in the city claimed at least eight lives.
Israel’s current escalation of the war on Lebanon began on March 2, a swift response after Hezbollah fired six rockets into Israel—the group’s first retaliation for Israeli aggression in over a year. Hezbollah stated its actions were provoked by Israel’s persistent ceasefire violations, continuous attacks despite the 2024 agreement, and, significantly, the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just two days earlier, coinciding with the onset of the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Since March 2, the human cost has been staggering. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, more than 3,600 people have been killed, including at least 245 children. An additional 11,000 individuals have been wounded, with children comprising at least 900 of the casualties. Civilians make up a significant portion of the deceased, with at least 131 paramedics among them, some falling victim to barbaric “double- or triple-tap” strikes. Tragically, 17 hospitals have sustained damage, and three are now entirely non-operational. Journalists, too, have been targeted during this brutal 100-day period.
Amidst the chaos, the Lebanese government struggles to assert its authority, facing immense pressure from both the US and Israel to curb Hezbollah’s influence, a group long entrenched as a powerful force within the nation. On March 2, Beirut declared Hezbollah’s military activities illegal, though this directive has had minimal impact on the group’s operational capabilities.
Iran, Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, has actively sought to intertwine Lebanon’s fate with any ceasefire negotiations between itself, Israel, and the US. In a precarious diplomatic gamble, the Lebanese government has seemingly staked its reputation on the personal intervention of US President Donald Trump.
“I have no other choice. I’m trying to benefit from President Trump’s personal interest in ending this conflict,” Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun confessed in a recent interview. “It’s very difficult, but we are committed to it. We have no other choice. So, we’re counting on President Trump and his team to make a breakthrough.”
A Long Shadow of Occupation
Echoing the 66-day military intensification of late 2024, Israel has once again unleashed a torrent of displacement, forcing well over 1.2 million Lebanese from their homes in southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs since March 2. Many have been displaced multiple times, their lives a perpetual cycle of flight.
Alarmingly, Israel’s military has pushed deeper into Lebanese territory, occupying approximately 2,000 square kilometers (770 square miles)—a territorial seizure unmatched since its withdrawal from South Lebanon in 2000. While Israel last invaded Lebanon in October 2024, its troops retreated following a ceasefire a month later, leaving only a handful of border outposts.
“In October and November 2024, the Israelis were very focused on limited goals,” Blanford explains. “They came in cautiously, mainly on foot with special forces units.” This time, however, analysts widely believe Israel harbors no intention of withdrawing.
“They’ve come in with much larger numbers, bringing tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and bulldozers. They’re destroying a much larger area of south Lebanon, and unlike previously, this time they’re planning to stay indefinitely,” Blanford warns. Indeed, Israeli officials have openly articulated such intentions. Defence Minister Israel Katz has declared his troops will occupy land up to the Litani River, which bisects southern Lebanon. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has gone further, advocating for the outright annexation of southern Lebanon and the declaration of the Litani as Israel’s new northern border.
Though Beirut itself has largely been spared the constant bombardment plaguing southern Lebanon, Israel did target the capital’s southern suburbs just last Sunday, maintaining a palpable threat over the city.
The past 100 days have been punctuated by unbelievably deadly episodes. April 8 stands out as one of the bloodiest, as Israel unleashed “Operation Eternal Darkness,” a horrifying blitz that killed over 350 people in more than 100 attacks, all within a mere 10 minutes. Israel claimed to be targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, yet experts, including those from the United Nations, condemned the attacks as “indiscriminate.”
The events of April 8 sparked an international outcry, forever etched into Lebanese memory as “Black Wednesday.” A little over a week later, on April 16, President Trump declared a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. However, the fighting continued unabated, with Israel relentless in its attacks on southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah maintaining its return fire.
Analysts contend that, if anything, the intensity of the fighting in southern Lebanon has only escalated since April 16. Another ceasefire was optimistically announced after the latest round of Lebanon-Israel direct negotiations on June 3. This one, however, was swiftly and outright rejected by Hezbollah, while Israeli forces stubbornly remained entrenched in Lebanon. For its part, Israel has demonstrably never ceased its offensive. For further details on the diplomatic efforts, you can review the joint trilateral statement.
Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Naim Qassem, condemned the agreement as “shameless,” branding it a “roadmap to annihilate part of the Lebanese people.” The specter of a prolonged and devastating war on Lebanon continues to cast a long, dark shadow over the entire region.
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